You Are On the Clock: Detroit

Ask yourself exactly what you would do in the shoes of Detroit Lions General Manager Martin Mayhew. You are the guiding hand that will attempt to rebuild the most moribund franchise in sports. A team that completel collapsed dating back to 2007 and has won only one game in their last twenty four attempts.

You've got the first overall pick, a blessing and a curse--a double edged sword, both a reward and a punishment for going 0-16. On the one hand, you have the ability to take anyone you want. Whoever you think is the best player for your franchise, there is no other team standing in your way. The only thing that can hinder a beautiful marriage of 1st overall pick and team is the dollars and the cents.

So as we count down to the draft, which begins in thirty-one days, I am going to post individually who I think each team is going to select in the first round, and break down that team's thought process.

The Detroit Lions are on the clock.

I've seen some bad defenses in my day, but Detroit's takes the cake. Last in yards allowed (404.4 per game), last in yards per play (6.4 per play), 27th in passing yards allowed (232 per game), highest opposing QB rating (110.9), highest rushing yards per carry allowed, rushing yards per game allowed, and rushing touchdowns allowed.

Yes, they were really that bad. Injuries certainly didn't help, as Cory Redding was lost for most of the season, and the Lions dealt Shaun Rogers during the off-season. The secondary was completely roasted, with Leigh Bodden struggling to adapt to the Lions zone-heavy scheme.

Offensively, the Lions struggled as well. They were 30th in yards per game (268), 24th in passing yards per game (185), allowed the 2nd most sacks of any team (52), and were 30th in rushing yards. They were really that bad.

This off-season the Lions have done a relatively good job of improving their abhorrent talent level, but they still lack depth at just about every position. They added Julian Peterson from Seattle, who should add a very good pass rushing threat from the OLB position if he stays healthy. He will also benefit Ernie Sims, who has struggled without much talent around him. The Lions have also decided to mark Cliff Avril as 'untouchable' even though Avril is the type of defensive end that will struggle mightily against bigger run blocking tackles.

Free agency hasn't really been kind. Detroit has added nothing but stop gaps in Bryant Johnson (WR), Anthony Henry (CB), Philip Buchanon (CB), and Grady Jackson (DT). Jackson's effectiveness in particular has really fallen off.

Detroit still has so much work to do.

Detroit Lions Team Needs (In Order of Importance):
QB
LT
NT
DT
MLB
FS
CB
LDE
OG
SS
WR
TE
Scat Back

It's an ugly list, but Detroit is basically a blank canvas, and they have a lot of picks this year. Even more importantly, they have two first round picks.

First and foremost, the Lions explore the trade option for Jay Cutler. The Broncos and Cutler, who just a few days ago seemed to be in an irreparable relationship, may be moving towards reconciliation. Denver likely does not want Detroit's 1st overall pick. They'd be more interested in Detroit's 20th overall pick, their 2nd or 3rd rounder, and a 2010 1st rounder. Detroit will not even bother calling them back about this deal.

So now that moves us on to eligible players for the Lions to draft first overall.

1. Matthew Stafford, QB, Georgia


Stafford has all the tools to be a franchise quarterback in the NFL. Stafford has average size at 6-foot-2 inches and 225 pounds, but he has elite arm strength and can make any throw asked of him. He comes from a pro style offense in Georgia where he faced the most difficult defenses in the nation week-in and week-out. Add in his football smarts and Stafford could be a sure-fire home run.

On the other hand, Stafford lacks consistency. His accuracy is particularly a point of interest here, and his footwork has at times been sloppy, though three years at Georgia have improved that.

As Detroit's front office we have to ask ourselves if Stafford is worth the money that we'd have to throw at him. Matt Ryan received a 6-year 72 million dollar contract as the 3rd overall pick and first quarterback taken in 2008. 34.75 million was guaranteed. You can expect Stafford to get nearly 80 million with almost 40 million guaranteed. Should Detroit really spend that kind of money on an early-entry quarterback?

The answer is no.


2. Jason Smith, LT, Baylor


Smith's off-season could earn him a couple extra million dollars per season. At one point, Smith was considered the fourth best tackle available of the top four tackles, but he's launched himself into the debate as the best overall tackle in this class. He weighed in at 6'5'' 309 pounds, which is pretty good size for a left tackle. He's got a good frame to begin with, so if a team wants him to gain a little extra weight it shouldn't be a problem. Smith is an all-around excellent blocker, but his focus is on his superb pass blocking. Detroit gave up the 2nd most sacks in the league, and Jeff Backus hasn't panned out at left tackle. Smith would be a cheaper alternative to Matt Stafford. Last year Jake Long signed a 6-year deal worth 57 million dollars. Smith would likely get in excess of 60 with about 33 guaranteed.

Smith is one of the safer picks in the draft, and would probably take Jeff Backus' job immediately.


3. Eugene Monroe, LT, Virginia


Monroe measured almost exactly the same as Jason Smith, and he's one of the best run blockers in space in this draft class. His pass blocking is exceptional, and he's done a lot to rebound from his horrid start against USC and pass rusher Clay Matthews during the home opener. He's an even safer pick then Jason Smith, because Smith is a converted TE and lacks quite a bit of experience at the OT position. Monroe is about as safe as it gets.


4. B.J. Raji, DT, Boston College


Raji is, in my opinion, the most dominant defensive tackle to come out since Kevin Williams. He's an absolute force on the inside, and could excel in either a 4-3 or 3-4 scheme with his superb size (6-foot-1 inch, 337 pounds) and leverage. Raji's got two big concerns. One, he doesn't have enough pass rushing moves. Even still, Raji can spin and swim, and has such an incredible combination of size, athleticism, and technique that this shouldn't be a concern. The other concern about Raji is that he missed a year of football on academic probation.

Raji's contract is going to be tough to determine if he is taken at first overall. Glenn Dorsey was the first defensive tackle taken last year and got a 5-year 33 million dollar contract, which is something of a shock when considering market value for the 5th overall pick. Chris Canty just got seven million a year from the Giants, which would seem to be what Raji would get, but Albert Haynesworth blew up the market with his 7-year 100 million dollar mega deal. I would expect if Raji is going to be taken first overall that his deal would be probably 6-years worth 50-55 million dollars. It's a tough one to call, because the market value on a first overall pick at defensive tackle is not set thanks to Albert Haynesworth vs. every other DT in the league.


5. Aaron Curry, LB, Wake Forest


Curry is maybe the safest player to draft in this class. The 6-foot-2 inch 254 pound behemoth is coming off a very good season with 105 tackles, 16 tackles for loss, and 2.5 sacks. Curry can play either on the outside or the inside, but would probably be most dangerous as an outside backer in the NFL. The Lions just acquired Julian Peterson and still have Ernie Sims on the other side, so Curry may not fit into Detroit's plans. He's going to be great somewhere, but probably not with Detroit.

Still, he'd come at an affordable cost for the #1 overall pick, likely no more then 7-8 million per season.


6. Mark Sanchez, QB, USC


Sanchez going first overall would be shocking, but it has been bandied about, and the Lions must do their due diligence in finding the best player for their squad. As noted with Stafford, a quarterback will be the face of your franchise and can immediately cause incredible excitement. You just have to decide whether or not that's worth 80 million dollars.

Sanchez is superbly built for a west coast attack because of his pin-point accuracy and his usual calm demeanor in the pocket. Even so, Sanchez will get rattled by pressure because he's only been starting for a year. His lack of experience is his biggest flaw, and you never take a player first overall with that kind of a flaw. Sanchez will likely fall, and fall hard if the Lions don't take him.


So it's decision time. Who should the Lions select?




With the first pick of the 2009 NFL Draft the Detroit Lions select Eugene Monroe, Offensive Tackle, from Virginia.