Spiel's Mock Draft (March 23rd, 2009)

Yes, it's FINALLY here. I've been working on it for ages. My mock:

PROJECTED TRADE: The Denver Broncos trade Jay Cutler to the New York Jets for their 1st round pick, 3rd round pick, and 2010 conditional pick (as low as a fourth and as high as a first).

1. Detroit Lions – Matthew Stafford, QB, Georgia
Rumor has it that the Lions have begun negotiations with the player that will be the first overall pick. One rumor from Chris Mortenson says that the Lions are honing in on Stafford. Another rumor (Pro Football Talk, the New York Post of football journalism) has said that the Lions prefer Sanchez over Stafford. One final rumor (KFFL) has mentioned that the Lions are going to go the Dolphins route and select Jason Smith first overall. Regardless of what happens, I think Stafford has the best shot after a very strong showing at his Pro Day, completing 45 of 50 passes to four different receivers. He is scheduled for a private workout with Detroit. The only thing that'll keep Stafford out of Motown is the dollars and cents. Matt Ryan got a 6-year 72 million dollar contract last year as the 3rd overall pick. Stafford would be a higher pick and a year after, so the market would have gone up. Detroit may not want to shell out close to 80 million for a quarterback who has never taken a snap in the NFL.

2. St. Louis Rams – Jason Smith, LT, Baylor
He's having the strongest off-season of any of the big four tackles, and he's a truly superb pass blocker. All he really needs is a little time in an NFL weight room and he should be a superb left tackle at the professional level.

3. Kansas City Chiefs – Eugene Monroe, LT, Virginia
If the Chiefs take Eugene Monroe, who played left tackle next to current left tackle Branden Albert at Virginia. Albert would move back to his natural position left guard and form a very strong left side for Kansas City. Aaron Curry certainly isn't out of the question, but the Chiefs have got to put a sustainable offense around Cassel/Thigpen this off-season. Larry Johnson still has not been released or dealt, but he still could be. Even if he remains, Kansas City will only be his home for one more season unless he puts up outstanding numbers, which he still could behind a rebuilt offensive line. Monroe compares favorably to D'Brickashaw Ferguson. He's a superb pass blocker that may struggle against the bull rush early in his career, and he's a guy who can run block best in space on pitches and sweeps.

4. Seattle Seahawks – Aaron Curry, LB, Wake Forest
After Seattle dealt Julian Peterson, they can only be so fortunate to have a much younger and athletic version of Peterson fall into their laps. Like Peterson, Curry is a very good pass rusher. Seattle isn't a team with a ton of needs because they were so torn up by injuries last season. This is a situation where you go best player available.

5. Cleveland Browns – Brian Orapko, DE/OLB, Texas
Orapko has risen on many boards to the top available pass rusher. Personally, I'm not a big fan, as he only had 4.5 sacks in Big 12 play last season. But, there's no denying the talent level, nor the fact that Cleveland is scraping the bottom of the barrel to get a pass rusher.

6. Cincinnati Bengals – B.J. Raji, DT, Boston College
After dealing Cory Redding, Raji could be the dark horse to go first overall to Detroit. He's an extremely talented linemen who creates enormous disruption and holds the point of attack very well. He could play nose tackle in either a 4-3 or the more difficult 3-4, so Cleveland may wind up taking him if Shaun Rogers stays a no show, but for right now I've got him falling into Cincinnati's lap, which would be an enormous boost to this franchise. Players like Raji do not come around too often, so Cincinnati would be foolish to pass him up if he fell.

7. Oakland Raiders – Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech
I'm still not the biggest Crabtree fan in the world, but you can't deny his extraordinary on-field production. Yes, he's not as big as he was listed and he's dealing with some injury concerns right now, but Crabtree compares favorably to Anquan Boldin. Boldin may have gone in the 2nd round of the 2003 draft, but it'd be pretty asinine to deny that he's put up 1st round production. Crabtree is no Randy Moss and he's no Larry Fitzgerald or Calvin Johnson. Those players come around so rarely. He's Anquan Boldin with better speed and a lot more hype. That's not a bad thing at all.

8. Jacksonville Jaguars – Andre Smith, OT, Alabama
Khalif Barnes and Richard Collier were competing for the starting left tackle job entering training camp last season. Neither is still with the squad. Barnes, while never an elite player, was a servicable LT and a solid run blocker. Collier was actually favored to steal the incumbent's job before he was shot multiple times and lost his leg and had to retire from the NFL. The Jaguars signed Tra Thomas to a short deal, but there's no guarantee how long he'll hold up for. Smith hasn't had a great off-season because of off-the-field issues, but he's the most dominant run blocker that we've seen since Marcus McNeill in 2006. Smith can play just about anywhere on the line except for center, and while he may make a very good NFL left tackle, I can guarantee he'll be a Hall of Fame caliber right tackle. In the end, I think he'll wind up being a blind side protector on most teams.

9. Green Bay Packers – Everette Brown, DE/OLB, Florida State
Brown's got superb burst and comes from a defense that has given 3-4 looks in the past, and has given players to NFL 3-4 defenses. The Packers desperately need an edge rusher in case the Aaron Kampmann experiment fails. If this works, the Packers could have one of the best front sevens in the NFL, because they've got a very compatible defensive line for the 3-4.

10. San Francisco 49ers – Malcolm Jenkins, CB/FS, Ohio State
Jenkins hasn't had the greatest off-season, timing very poorly in workouts. Still, he's the most physical defensive back available, and he can play either corner or free safety in San Francisco. Nate Clements was rumored to move to free safety, a move that made little sense. This move can keep Clements at corner and put Jenkins at free safety. San Francisco isn't that far off from competing in the NFC West.

11. Buffalo Bills – Aaron Maybin, DE/OLB, Penn State
I'm personally not a fan of Aaron Maybin, but right now his stock is still quite high. There's no doubt that he's got elite measurables and incredible potential, but he's probably one of the most raw players to enter the draft since Alex Smith in 2005.

12. Denver Broncos – Mark Sanchez, QB, USC
This is the move that will allow Denver to move Cutler. If Sanchez isn't taken first overall, he should be available for the Broncos at twelve. Jets General Manager Mike Tannenabum is aggressively pursuing Jay Cutler, so don't be surprised if Sanchez is in Denver by draft day.

13. Washington Redskins – Michael Oher, LT, Ole Miss
Oher has probably been the most unfairly criticized of all the players in this draft class. He was given a lot of scrutiny after "The Blind Side" delegated him as the next great left tackle in the NFL. Oher suffers from some consistency issues, but is a very good pass blocker and a punishing run blocker. He's got an excellent frame for the position as well. Washington would only be so lucky to grab Oher, because they don't need to play him at left tackle to start his career. He would most likely replace the aging Jon Jansen at right tackle.

14. New Orleans Saints – Chris “Beanie” Wells, RB, Ohio State
Wells stock has bounced back upward, but I've been high on him for a while. He looked fully healthy against Texas in the Fiesta Bowl, and New Orleans may not be willing to wait for LaDainian Tomlinson. They have a plethora of talent in New Orleans, and they need a power runner to compliment Reggie Bush.

15. Houston Texans – Vontae Davis, CB, Illinois
The Texans have been trying to fill out the secondary since their inception, but they're nearly complete. He's a little raw, but Houston has a lot of defensive talent and could make a strong push for a wildcard next season if Matt Schaub could stay healthy.

16. San Diego Chargers – Evander “Ziggy” Hood, DT/E, Missouri
Hood has been on fire since the tail end of the 2008 season and fed the flames by posting very good workout numbers. With Igor Olshansky moving to Dallas, the Chargers will need a viable replacement, and teaming Hood with Williams (when healthy) and Luis Castillo will keep San Diego's defense afloat.

17. Denver Broncos (from New York Jets) – Michael Johnson, DE/OLB, Georgia Tech
This would be the Jets pick normally, and I don't like projecting trades, but I have projected a deal between New York and Denver. The Jets are aggressively pursuing Cutler and Cutler is pretty much ignoring any attempt by McDaniels to reconcile. Michael Johnson would be a terrific pick for Denver as they move to a 3-4 defense. Johnson could probably see a bit more success at the professional level as a standup linebacker, and he's got a great skillset and size combination.

18. Chicago Bears – Jeremy Maclin, WR, Missouri
While the Bears could take a defensive end here, this pick seems to make the most sense. Maclin isn't going to go as high as people claim he will, and I am concerned over the offensive system he is coming from, but Chicago needs to help out Kyle Orton a bit.

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Josh Freeman, QB, Kansas State
The Bucs can't be content with Luke McCown as their opening day quarterback. Freeman is the perverbial Jay Cutler of this draft as he comes from an offense without a ton of talent and a lot of question marks about how he plays against superior talent. Cutler was able to disprove those criticisms, Freeman may not be as lucky.

20. Detroit Lions (from Dallas Cowboys) – William Beatty, LT, Connecticut
This is the player that not many are talking about, but could be better than any of the left tackles in this already stacked class. Beatty's got everything that you'd want in a left tackle: great frame, athleticism, superb footwork, long arms, and a great technique. What he lacks is bulk, so he probably won't start his first year in the NFL. He needs to gain a good 10-15 pounds to play LT in the NFL, but if he's able to carry the weight to his 6'6'' 291 pound frame and not affect his play he will be a great one for many years.

21. Philadelphia Eagles – Eben Britton, LT, Arizona
Britton's another linemen who has been forgotten, but like last year there is going to be a major run on offensive tackles in the first round. Philadelphia doesn't have Tra Thomas or Jon Runyan under contract. Shawn Andrews is kicking out to RT and Winston Justice is the projected starting LT, but I get the feeling Philadelphia isn't pleased with the idea of Justice starting without any insurance.

22. Minnesota Vikings – Louis Delmas, S, Western Michigan
Delmas has had a truly superb off-season, but he has a couple of striking questions about him--mostly his size. Still Delmas is a dark horse to be the first safety taken in a very weak year.

23. New England Patriots – Brian Cushing, OLB, USC
Cushing, already a superb pass rusher, knows the OLB position well. He has the size and would fit in well in New England. The only question marks for Cushing come in coverage.

24. Atlanta Falcons – Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Oklahoma State
Bad 40 time or not, Pettigrew is the best tight end available in this class. Atlanta has the biggest need here, and a tight end can be a young quarterback's security blanket.

25. Miami Dolphins – Clint Sintim, OLB, Virginia
The Dolphins may look at Rey Mauluga here, but the return of Channing Crowder should be enough to suffice. Sintim comes from the UVA 3-4 and will be well versed already for this position in the NFL. Groh succeeded Parcells in New York in 2000, and has been churning out NFL ready players for years.

26. Baltimore Ravens – Rey Mauluga, ILB, USC
Baltimore has been great at churning out linebackers through late round picks in the past, but this one is simply too much to pass up. Mauluga's stock has taken a little hit, and with an aging Ray Lewis starting at one of the ILB spots, Mauluga could be a revelation for the Ravens.

27. Indianapolis Colts – Peria Jerry, DT, Ole Miss
There doesn't seem to be a more set pick in the draft then this one. The Colts have a huge need at DT, and Ziggy Hood overtook Peria Jerry who has been sitting pretty in the late first round for months.

28. Philadelphia Eagles (from Carolina Panthers) – Kenny Britt, WR, Rutgers
McNabb wants more help on offense, and the Eagles need a true #1 receiver who can go over the middle. Britt is my personal favorite receiver in this draft, and he would be joining a receiving corp. that has a lot of talent, but no true #1. Britt's improved every year since he enrolled at Rutgers, and is not afraid to go over the middle.

29. New York Giants – Darius Heyward-Bey, WR, Maryland
DHB's stock soared for a few weeks, but it looks like he's going to level off at the end of the first round. The Giants have been collecting receivers on Day One in recent years, but there are no guarantees with Plaxico Burress.

30. Tennessee Titans – Hakeem Nicks, WR, North Carolina
Nicks is another player who I think will level out come draft day. His stock soared briefly, but he should round out around here for the Titans to snag.

31. Arizona Cardinals – Alex Mack, C, California
Another near-lock here. The Cardinals have been lacking a good center for more then a decade.

32. Pittsburgh Steelers – George “Duke” Robinson, OG, Oklahoma
His stock has decreased a lot, as many compared him to Branden Albert last year, but his awful performance in the BCS Championship Game dropped his stock and should allow Pittsburgh to grab him, and they desperately need him.



ROUND TWO COMING LATER TODAY