Tuesday, March 3, 2009

Matt Cassel Not Guaranteed Starting Job in Kansas City

According to the Kansas City Star, Coach Todd Haley is going to hold an open competition in training camp for the starting quarterback job. The obvious frontrunner is Matt Cassel, the backup to Carson Palmer, Matt Leinart, and Tom Brady who emerged on the scene after throwing 21 touchdown passes last season in a loaded New England offense.

Cassel was acquired for the 34th overall pick in the 2009 NFL Draft. Earlier reports stated that it was the belief around the league that New England could get a first round pick for Cassel, but this belief was quickly stifled. One good season of play throwing to Randy Moss and Wes Welker in that offensive system isn't enough to get a first round pick for anyone (hear more about this later though).

Tyler Thigpen actually put together a surprisingly decent season last year. I was laughing without any hesitancy when Herman Edwards announced that Thigpen would be the starting quarterback. The former seventh round pick from Coastal Carolina had zero experience, but after Thigpen's shaky start he rose admirably to the challenge. While his touchdown to interception ratio looks great (18-12), his accuracy was way off the mark (completing less than 55% of his throws) with a paltry yards per attempt of 6.2 that reeks of David Carr.

Still, Thigpen did all of this in a putrid offense that had no consistent offensive line play and had nobody to compliment Dwayne Bowe on the other side of the field. On the other hand, having a future hall of famer at tight end post the kind of season that fantasy nerds dream of is also a big help. Either way, if it's an open competition, Cassel has the immediate advantage because of why he was brought in.

But if it is a competition let's break down what these two players are good and bad at.

Cassel is of course still a young NFL player at age 26, and it's likely that Kansas City will come to a new deal with him soon, because it's doubtful that they'd risk paying Cassel 14.651 million (QB franchise tag) to ride the pine. He's 6'4'' 230 pounds, and could probably still put on weight if asked. He's got terrific mobility and the ability to extend the play. He showed flashes of being able to feel the pressure last year. His pocket presence is inconsistent, but the flashes he displayed could benefit him greatly.

Cassel's arm isn't of an elite caliber, but it's good enough to get the job done. It's certainly at the caliber that an NFL quarterback should be on, and he can get a good zip on his throws, but has a great understanding of when to take some heat off. His short and intermediate accuracy is simply superb.

Cassel's biggest flaw, which won't be of that much concern in Kansas City right now, is his abhorrent deep ball accuracy. Cassel's receivers did lead the league in yards after catch, but that isn't why I question his deep ball accuracy. When it comes to throwing deep, Cassel looked like Joe Flacco out there--a rookie. He didn't understand when to take something off the ball on his deep throws, constantly overthrowing Moss during the game where I saw Cassel at his most comfortable--the Thursday Night game between the Jets and Patriots in mid-November.

Cassel is entering a system however that will likely benefit him. Chan Gailey is sticking around as offensive coordinator in Kansas City, and he used something of a pro-styled spread attack with Tyler Thigpen as the quarterback. It's very similar to what New England used, except with far less talent.

Moving onto Tyler Thigpen he's got a strong arm, but not elite, and a very quick release. While Cassel's release certainly doesn't hinder him, it's not as fluid as Thigpen's is. Thigpen is a thick, muscular 225 pounds despite being only 6'1''. He's likely able to take a beating behind a leaky Chiefs offensive line. And we know he's got great mobility, as Thigpen didn't even play quarterback in high school. He doesn't necessarily have a great feel for the pass rush, or the ability to make that one move and complete a throw. He's more likely to take off downfield and run if his spidey sense goes off in his head telling him he's about to be mauled by a 275 pound defensive end.

Thigpen also thrived in an offense that had an inconsistent at best offensive line, very little running game, and no receiving compliments for Gonzalez and Bowe. But statistically speaking, Thigpen got worse as the game went on. He would go into a game firing and would successively get worse as each quarter would proceed, especially the 4th quarter. This could just be the residual effects of having Herman Edwards as your head coach, because making the right decision in the 4th quarter seems to be a phobia with him.

Thigpen has the chemistry, the system, and the knowledge at his benefit, while Cassel is coming off of a better season and has more raw talent. It'll be interesting to see who wins this job, but the smart money has to be on Matt Cassel. A rebuilding team giving up an early 2nd round pick is never easy, because those early 2nd rounders are usually where you snag a player who should have gone in the first round and fell.

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