Star Power Taking a Hit: Terrell Owens Heading to the Worst Market in the NFL

Terrell Owens is going to the Buffalo Bills. The deal is favorable towards Buffalo. They certainly didn't overpay, but it's not particularly favorable for their organization's stability or their head coach. Owens wasn't particularly awful in Dallas in terms of locker room issues, and is right now being used more as a scapegoat then anything else in Dallas (no team with that much talent should go 9-7).

But Owens to the Bills feels so odd. In San Francisco he had Steve Young and Jeff Garcia. In Philadelphia he had Donovan McNabb. In Dallas he had Tony Romo. All three of those teams had legacies, star power, a large media market, and pizazz. Buffalo has none of those things. San Francisco remains the only team to win five out of five Super Bowls (and the first team to hit that plateau I believe), Dallas has played in eight Super Bowls (winning five as well), and the Philadelphia Eagles are one of the oldest teams in the NFL, with one of the largest (and most volatile) markets in the country. Again, Buffalo doesn't have this. They have the only owner in the league whose largest asset is his team, which is why he struggles to pay top tier free agents to long term deals (in spite of the shared revenue policy and salary cap).

Buffalo is the only NFL city that's population growth is declining, and whose average age continues to rise. It's not ideal for an NFL franchise, and their biggest claim to fame in all their years of existence is being one of two teams to lose four Super Bowls. The big problem with that was those four losses in a row were consecutive. People will remember them for four straight blunders, and realize that their history was great in the early 90's, but that they don't have a ton of history besides that. Jim Kelly can do all he wants to try and save the Bills, but I have a feeling that the Bills may be the first team since the Browns "deactivated" their franchise and shipped off to Baltimore to move.

As previously noted, Owens has had a Hall of Fame quarterback, a borderline Hall of Famer, a perennial All-Pro, and spot Pro Bowler throwing him the ball in his career. Now he has Trent Edwards. He's 12-11 as a starter. Not world beating, but not awful. He doesn't throw a lot of interceptions either. This year he averaged one interception every 37.4 attempts. Now, part of this good fortune is that the Bills don't pass a lot (Edwards averaged 26.4 attempts per game, among the lowest in the league). Edwards knows how to take care of the ball, but his arm isn't particularly strong and he's playing in an offense designed to limit faults and flaws in a quarterback. In this new caretaking system, Edwards completion percentage skyrocketed. It rose 9.4% to the mid 60's, where a professional should be throwing. Part of it is acclimation to the NFL, but the other part of that is the system benefitting Edwards.

That's what makes adding Terrell Owens especially perplexing. Owens will not thrive in any system that depends on the short passing game. That's not T.O.'s game. He can go over the middle, but his forte is those 15-20 yard post patterns where Owens can use his great agility, size, and route running to beat his man.

Unless Buffalo is planning on opening up the offense for Owens, I can't imagine that this acquisition is going to be all that successful. Especially considering Dick Jauron's seat is hotter than anyone elses in the league. After three straight 7-9 seasons, including a 2-8 collapse this season, Jauron was able to keep his job when basically the entire team lobbied to save Sir Mediocrity.

So for Owens and Jauron, it's playoffs or bust. Owens will need to behave himself with only a one year deal, but if things aren't going the team's way, Owens is going to be a problem in the locker room. Buffalo's only consolation is that they only have to deal with him for one season, but it's make or break time in Buffalo. They have a young speedy defense anchored by big man Marcus Stroud, but the youngsters still haven't broken out of the "high ceiling" shell. Chances are though, with Marshawn Lynch in legal trouble and facing suspension, with the offensive line a shell of it's 2007 form, and it's receiving game entirely one dimensional, the Bills could be in trouble.

Now adding Owens does add that second dimension to the Bills offense. Evans is the deep threat, Owens is going to get you those 15 yard post patterns, but Owens is on the downside of his career, and it's most notable in his hands, which seem to be prone to butterfingers.

If Buffalo uses Owens right, and if Owens maintains his great physical condition, their offense may be a bit better. I can't see Owens fitting into Buffalo's offense all that well, which of course is the problem. Plus, Owens is going to hate the city itself. It's nothing like Philadelphia, Dallas, or San Francisco.

Only time will tell, but Owens receiving yards per game dropped by 35 yards from 2007 to 2008. And of course, my dislike for Trent Edwards as the Bills starting quarterback is another reason why I don't see the Bills, or Owens, succeeding. Again though, only time will tell whether Owens can thrive in the worst market in the NFL.