1. UFA DT Albert Haynesworth – Expected to receive a deal averaging between 15 and 16 million per season. Haynesworth’s decision is going to come down to a couple of things. First and foremost, he wants to be paid like the best defensive player in the NFL. Secondly, he has stated he wants to remain in the southeast. Lastly, he needs to go to a team where he’ll stay at defensive tackle, otherwise he won’t be paid like the best defensive player in football.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Almost sixty million in cap space, a glaring need at defensive tackle, and fulfill the requirements of playing in the Southeast. DC Jim Bates wants to run a Cover 2, but also wants a bigger defense. Haynesworth would fit the mold, and would excel next to rising star Gaines Adams.
Atlanta Falcons – Although GM Thomas Dimitroff has said that he doesn’t think the Falcons will be a major player for Haynesworth, the Falcons have the cap space, the need, and fulfill the location requirement in multiple ways. Not only are they in the southeast, but Haynesworth has family ties in Atlanta.
Washington Redskins – The latest rumors have indicated that Washington will sign Haynesworth to a deal as soon as free agency begins. Regardless of whether or not it’s true, Washington has freed up the necessary cap space through contract restructures and fulfills the requirement of playing in the southeast (or close enough).
New York Giants – Haynesworth himself listed them as a potential suitor, and I think he likes the idea of playing on a defensive line where no single player can be keyed on, but how the Giants will be able to afford Haynesworth’s insane price tag I don’t know.
Spiel's Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2. UFA QB Kurt Warner – Expected to receive a deal averaging between 9 and 10 million per season. Warner has made it clear that he’s either re-signing with Arizona or retiring.
Arizona Cardinals – They’ve offered him ten million a year in a short term deal, and Warner has come out and said that he’s going to retire if he doesn’t return to Arizona. The chances of him entertaining other offers are unlikely.
New York Jets – If he does hit the open market, this may be the one quarterback that the Jets are willing to go after. Chances of signing are slim to none.
Spiel's Pick: Arizona Cardinals
3. UFA ILB Bart Scott – Expected to receive a deal averaging between 7 and 9 million per season. The 28 year old ILB plays a position that has a long shelf life. He could have immense success if he remains in Baltimore, or joins former defensive coordinator Rex Ryan in New York.
New York Jets – The Jets new head coach Rex Ryan is the former defensive coordinator in Baltimore, and this is one of several reasons the Jets are expected to be among the top suitors for Scott. They have the cash and big need at ILB.
Baltimore Ravens – Scott and the Ravens are reportedly drawing closer to a deal, but deadline is approaching for free agency and if he hits the open market, he may be out of the Ravens price range. Still, a return to Baltimore would be in Scott’s best interest.
Denver Broncos – With the Broncos moving to a 3-4, they have several glaring needs, and besides needing an entirely new defensive line, they need an inside linebacker to plug next to D.J. Williams. The Broncos are reportedly being frugal this off-season, but if they have one big expenditure, it could be for a 3-4 player.
Spiel's Pick: New York Jets
4. UFA ILB Ray Lewis – Expected to receive a deal averaging between 9 and 11 million per season. If Bart Scott leaves the open market, expect the Jets to jump to the top of this list, the Ravens to fall off the list, and Kansas City or Denver to jump on this list.
Dallas Cowboys – The Cowboys are expected to make him an offer he can’t refuse, and I can see the idea of playing for “America’s Team” having major appeal for Lewis.
Baltimore Ravens – Finishing out your Hall of Fame career with the only team you’ve known will also have some appeal to Lewis, and the Ravens are said to be offering close to nine million a year.
New York Jets – The Rex Ryan connection, the New York market, and a lot of cap space says it all.
Spiel's Pick: Dallas Cowboys
5. UFA OG Derrick Dockery – Expected to receive between 6 and 8 million annually.
Washington Redskins – The Redskins have made cap space available, and would love nothing more than to bring Dockery back into the fold after a three-year hiatus in Buffalo. His last season wasn’t spectacular, but he wasn’t helped but the poor play of Jason Peters.
Oakland Raiders – I don’t believe for a second that Oakland won’t extend a huge contract offer to Dockery. Whether or not he accepts it is something different altogether, but the Raiders could switch Robert Gallery to RG where his run blocking skillset can be better used, and Dockery can aid in the potential development of Mario Henderson.
Jacksonville Jaguars – The Jaguars had major injuries devastate their offensive line this season, and Dockery could be just what the doctor ordered.
Spiel's Pick: Washington Redskins
6. UFA MLB Jonathan Vilma – Expected to be re-signed by New Orleans, but must hit free agent market based on certain stipulations in the Jets-Saints trade last off-season. Will receive between 8-9 million annually.
New Orleans Saints – The Saints are almost certainly expected to re-sign Vilma, but they have to wait until after free agency begins, otherwise they must give up a 1st round pick to the Giants, and a 2nd round pick to the Jets. Vilma may sign elsewhere, but chances are he’ll return to New Orleans.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers – The Buccaneers have the cap space and run the system that would fit Vilma best. He would add versatility to their LB corp. as he would play either OLB next to Barrett Ruud on the inside or vice-versa.
Detroit Lions – The Lions have been interested in trading for Vilma since as early as the end of the 2006 season, but they never pulled the trigger. This could be a great opportunity to add a solid talent to their linebacker corp., but he may not be what they need for the rebuilding job that Schwartz is going to have to do.
Spiel's Pick: New Orleans Saints
7. RFA TE Owen Daniels – Expected to receive a deal averaging between 5 and 6 million per season. Daniels is expected to receive the highest tender, which the Texans will use to buy time until they can agree to a new deal with him.
Houston Texans – The Texans are going to give him the highest tender available to protect themselves from someone trying to sign him and give them time to work out a long-term deal. If a team does sign him to an offer sheet and the Texans don’t match, Houston will receive a 1st and a 3rd round pick.
Buffalo Bills – The Bills are said to be potential suitors, and they’ve lacked a strong tight end for a long time, and whomever is the Bills quarterback is going to need a good safety net at tight end. Daniels has soft hands and will catch just about anything thrown his way.
Atlanta Falcons – The Falcons are definitely in the market for a tight end, but this may be out of their price range and cost range (draft picks).
Spiel's Pick: Houston Texans
8. UFA C Jason Brown – Wants at least 8 million per season, but is likely to get between 6-7 million per season. Brown wants to be paid like the top guard in the market, despite the fact that his top suitors are interested him as a center. Chances are Brown will have to settle for a center’s contract with incentives and escalators.
Miami Dolphins – The Dolphins have already been active in free agency, signing Gibril Wilson, but Jason Brown is supposed to be one of their top targets this off-season. They are planning on playing him at center and moving Satele to guard, which could form one of the most formidable offensive lines in the NFL.
Baltimore Ravens – Brown’s agent said it’s likely that either he or Scott re-signs with the Ravens, and my money is on Brown.
Arizona Cardinals – No team needs a center more than Arizona, and this may be one of the few times that Arizona actually wants to spend any money.
Spiel's Pick: Baltimore Ravens
9. UFA SS Gibril Wilson – A surprising cut by Oakland, he averaged 6.5 million per season with the Raiders, and his stock will have gone down a little, but not much.
SIGNED WITH THE MIAMI DOLPHINS (5 years, 27.5 million, 8 million guaranteed)
A very good safety in the box, Wilson isn’t a terrific coverage safety, but is still in the upper echelon as far as strong safeties are concerned. Plus he’s terrific in run support. The Dolphins got a steal here, as quite a few other teams were slow to the draw on Wilson.
10. UFA DL Chris Canty – The hybrid defensive tackle/defensive end is expected to ask for no less then what Tommy Kelly received (7 years, 50.5 million with 18 million guaranteed). Expect him to receive it.
Washington Redskins – The Skins are expected to go hard after Haynesworth, but he may be just a little too pricey. Canty will have to switch positions to play in Washington, but they Skins will make it worth his while and give him the type of money that Tommy Kelly got before he restructured his contract.
Dallas Cowboys – The two sides are far apart, and originally Dallas was going to let him walk, but they’ve approached Canty about staying, so it’s not out of the question at this point.
Denver Broncos – Probably priced out of Denver’s range, but as I said, I think that the Broncos will go after at least one big name player that fits the 3-4 defense. Canty would be overpaid as a defensive end, but he’d fit the bill that I’m thinking about.
Spiel's Pick: Washington Redskins
Coming later today or early tomorrow: TEN most underrated players in free agency!
Hall of Fames Aren't Holy
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