So now let's get to the mock draft.
1. Detroit Lions – Matthew Stafford, QB, Georgia
There is dissension inside the Lions organization about Stafford, but it seems that he's going to be the pick. But if Detroit can agree to a deal with Jason Smith or Aaron Curry first, I would not be surprised if they made the deal. Jason Smith and Matthew Stafford share the same agent, Tom Condon, which creates some conflict of interest. The big question is whether or not Stafford can be a franchise quarterback. There's so much risk that goes into taking a quarterback first overall, Detroit could set the franchise back even further with this pick. I still think the right move is to go after one of the offensive linemen, but Stafford more and more is seeming like the pick.
Either way, the Lions Front Office has been mixed on Stafford. If they can sign Jason Smith or Aaron Curry before the draft, to a cheaper deal (which it would be), then Stafford would get, they will do it.
2. St. Louis Rams – Jason Smith, LT, Baylor
Smith is probably my least favorite tackle of the Big Four, but he's got the highest stock by far right now--and that's with Michael Oher's stock jumping way back up after a great off-season.
Smith is considered to have the highest upside, and is also considered a better run blocker then Eugene Monroe, which is what makes him the pick here. Smith has only played left tackle for a few years, which should concern anyone picking him about his lack of experience. Smith converted from tight end.3. Kansas City Chiefs – B.J. Raji, NT, Boston College
This is, to me, the pick that can change Kansas City around. Implementing a 3-4 is difficult, and doing it without the proper pieces is just plain unintelligent. We've seen teams do it in the past without all the pieces, but Kansas City lacks quite a few of them. First and foremost then they'd better get a nose tackle, and it's just there fortune that the best nose tackle prospect since Vince Wilfork is going to be available at 3rd overall.
Raji is my #1 rated player in this draft because of his incredible versatility. He can play in any system, and he'd be able to do it as a nose tackle or an undertackle. Hell, he'd be out of position, but he'd even draw some attention as a 3-4 DE.
This would move Glenn Dorsey over to defensive end, though how he'd transition in the 3-4 is still a good question. Regardless, this is the pick that Kansas City MUST make if they expect to thrive as a 3-4 team.
4. Seattle Seahawks – Mark Sanchez, QB, USC
A few weeks back when I started doing my "team per day" mock I thought that Sanchez to Seattle was a serious possibility. Jim Mora Jr. commented on the importance of upgrading the position because of Matt Hasselbeck's injuries being potentially long-term. Sanchez fits the Seattle offense to a tee, and he wouldn't have to start right away with Hasselbeck and Seneca Wallace ahead of him on the depth chart. Now it's seeming like what was once a long shot pick is now a reality. Sanchez's stock has been soaring in the past week and a half with the after shock of his Pro Day. Today, two scouts for both the Rams and the Ravens commented on the risk involved in Sanchez, who has only started sixteen games in his entire collegiate career.
The risk is there, but the reward is high for a guy like Sanchez. Giving him a lot of guaranteed money is not going to be pleasant though, because I don't think Sanchez will see much playing time for the first two years of his career.
5. Cleveland Browns – Brian Orakpo, OLB, Texas
I don't believe that the Browns are going to trade Braylon Edwards--yet. Edwards wants to be paid in excess of ten million a year (Larry Fitzgerald money) so I think the Browns will eventually trade him. I think right now Cleveland is trying to drum up interest for Michael Crabtree so someone can take him ahead of Oakland. Cleveland is doing the same thing for Brady Quinn I think. The opportunity for a deal is not out of the question for Edwards, but I just beleive after trading Kellen Winslow II that the Browns won't do it right now. Especially with so little depth at receiver.
Now as for the pick, I'm not Orakpo's biggest fan. He didn't really excel against a high level of competition, getting only 4.5 sacks in Big 12 play. Still, Orakpo is a marvelous athlete with production on the football field to back him up. And if you want to take a look at a combine number that actually matters, Orakpo's 10-yard split of 1.58 was a very solid number to put up. Only four players at his position posted better 10-yard splits.
6. Cincinnati Bengals – Eugene Monroe, LT, Virginia
Monroe's stock has taken a hit recently as there is a report surfacing that some teams are concerned about his knee. By now, it should be obvious that teams will leak false information to try and get a team to bite and have a player they want fall to them. Regardless though, the reason that Monroe falls to six is because Mark Sanchez has jumped into the Top 5, something I didn't think was going to happen.
Monroe presents a major upgrade to Levi Jones. He's an excellent pass blocker, though he is a lackluster run blocker. On pulls and blocking in space are Monroe's best assets in the running game.
7. Oakland Raiders – Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech
His off-season hasn't been great, but the tape speaks for itself. While Crabtree is going to have to learn more professional routes, he's got the skillset to be a very good receiver in the NFL. Soft hands, a thick body that can take and dish punishment, and crisp route running will be a big asset to any team.
In Oakland, Crabtree won't necessarily have a standout career unless JaMarcus Russell improves his short and intermediate accuracy.
8. Jacksonville Jaguars – Aaron Curry, OLB, Wake Forest
Curry takes a fall because of his position. The fact is that he just doesn't play a position that is all that important. He projects to weakside linebacker, and while he's enormously versatile, he'd probably play 3-4 ILB in a 3-4 defense, and that's not all that important either compared with other positions.
So Jacksonville gets an absolute steal right here. The only concern I have about Curry is his abilities in coverage. He's going to be an enforcer against the run and when asked to blitz he's got Julian Peterson like ability for a 4-3 OLB, but his poor shuttle time is a cause for concern about his fluidity and ability to change direction.
9. Green Bay Packers – Michael Oher, LT, Ole Miss
To me, Oher is an absolute steal at 9th overall. While there have been some complaints about his consistency, he's the most well-rounded linemen of the entire Big Four.
He is just as good a run blocker as a pass blocker, and the only question is whether Oher can put it all together, all the talent, for a sixteen game schedule.
10. San Francisco 49ers – Andre Smith, OT, Alabama
Whether or not Andre Smith plays left or right tackle, I can't imagine him getting past San Francisco. He's the most dominant run blocker to come out since Marcus McNeill in 2006. The big question is what position will Smith play? Smith struggled at times against speed rushers, which may disqualify him from LT. Still, if he keeps his nose clean, and some do feel that his antics at the Combine were overblown, then Smith can be a dominant offensive linemen at the next level.
With his size and skill he projects to several different positions along the line.
11. Buffalo Bills – Everette Brown, DE, Florida State
Unless they trade up I do think Buffalo is going to miss out on the Big Four offensive tackles. I could see them trading up, as they have the ammunition to do so, but I don't like projecting trades. So I'm sticking them with Everette Brown.
I'm a big fan of Brown. He had a terrific final year with Florida State racking up double digit sacks. He's a little small at 6-foot-1 inches and 256 pounds, but he's got incredible burst to make up for it and will take a lot of pressure off of Aaron Schobel.
12. Denver Broncos – Josh Freeman, QB, Kansas State
The Broncos have the ammunition to trade up for Sanchez, but I think they're content just sitting on their picks. Freeman's got the elite skillset that you look for in a franchise quarterback, but lacks the elite production to back him up. One thing working for Freeman is the fact that he played with some truly awful receivers at Kansas State. One of his starters was 5-foot-7 inches, 142 pounds. For the record, I weigh more than that.
Denver could snag Tyson Jackson or Aaron Maybin here, but I think Denver wants someone who can sit and learn under Kyle Orton for a year and be ready to jump in.
13. Washington Redskins – Aaron Maybin, DE, Penn State
At 6-foot-3 inches and 249 pounds size is definitely a concern for Maybin. Still, he's got very good raw talent and while I disagree with his coming out this early in his collegiate career, there are teams with needs and one of them is Washington, who very much needs to overhaul the defensive line.
Adding Albert Haynesworth will help Andre Carter get his career back on track, but adding another defensive end to play across from Carter will help equally. The quicker Maybin can succeed, the better things will get for Andre Carter and the Redskins defense.
14. New Orleans Saints – Malcolm Jenkins, CB/FS, Ohio State
From what I've heard, New Orleans will only take Beanie Wells if they think the elite defensive players are all off the board. Well, the best defensive back in a very weak year is still available.
This is the odds on favorite to be the pick, especially since Jenkins can actually play man-to-man.
15. Houston Texans – Brian Cushing, OLB, USC
Cushing's instincts are questionable, but he's a very good pass rusher in either the 4-3 or the 3-4. Cushing is a very good athlete though, and should be able to cover pretty well at the next level.
He'd be a very good addition for a Houston team that is on the cusp of a playoff birth.
16. San Diego Chargers – Tyson Jackson, DE, LSU
While the Chargers will give Beanie Wells a hard look here, Tyson Jackson has a higher stock right now and will be more important to San Diego's success in the future. The Chargers are still in "win-now" mode because they have a young quarterback in Philip Rivers, but how much longer will they be in "win-now" mode? Tomlinson's best days are behind him, but he can still provide one more good season for the Chargers at least. The team is getting a little older in the trenches and Shawne Merriman is coming off that terrible knee injury.
So the Chargers, who let Igor Olshansky walk this off-season, have found his replacement in Tyson Jackson. Jackson has been recently compared to Richard Seymour, and would be a terrific addition to San Diego's 3-4 defense who has already got one great DE in Luis Castillo. NT Jamal Williams is getting older, and finding his successor is going to be very important in the next year or two.
NOTE: Regarding Tyson Jackson, don't be surprised if the Chiefs trade back up to get Jackson and play him across from Dorsey in there 3-4. The other option, if the Chiefs find a suitor, is for Kansas City to trade down to around the 10-15 area and snag Tyson. Watch out for it on draft day.
17. New York Jets – Kenny Britt, WR, Rutgers
This is what my gut has been telling me for a few weeks, and I've nailed the Jets three straight years. With all the quarterbacks gone and the best 3-4 DE gone as well, the Jets look to fill their biggest hole. Kenny Britt hasn't been mentioned here by anyone else except for Sporting News. But I agree with them.
The Jets lack a big receiver, and at 6-foot-3 inches, 218 pounds Britt provides that. Britt is just a hair behind Michael Crabtree in my eyes with his combination of size, route running, and speed. Britt, people forget, was very limited as a sophomore--he was only a deep threat, which is why I am shocked whenever someone says he doesn't have deep speed. It was Britt's great off-season work that allowed him to be a more complete receiver as a junior.
18. Denver Broncos (from Chicago Bears) – Rey Maualuga, ILB, USC
Mauluga is taylor-made for a 3-4, and while I'm not positive he's going to be all that great in coverage, he's going to do very well rushing the passer and playing the run.
The Broncos have a ton of needs to fix their 3-4 defense. They're likely to have one of the oldest defenses in the league next year, so stopping the run is going to be tough for them.
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Jeremy Maclin, WR, Missouri
Not only does this fill a need but Maclin is the best player available. He put up great numbers at Missouri and is a terrific athlete, but he comes in knowing almost no pro routes because of the Missouri system.
He'll need to be ready to start at the latest by his 2nd season, because Antonio Bryant could be out of Tampa Bay if his contract situation isn't settled soon. Even so, Bryant is an inconsistent player. He's talented, but he doesn't break big-time games out enough.
20. Detroit Lions (from Dallas) – Eben Britton, LT, Arizona
After missing out on one of the Big Four, Britton is a nice consolation prize. The Lions took Gosder Cherilus last season to play right tackle, and he received mixed reviews after his first season.
Jeff Backus would have lost his job by now on any other team, but these are the Detroit Lions. Britton is a pick that must happen here.
21. Philadelphia Eagles – Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Oklahoma State
With the trade for Jason Peters, Philadelphia's biggest need is now a thing of the past. The Eagles are free to steal Brandon Pettigrew from Atlanta. Pettigrew is an all around talent who can catch and block with the best of them.
22. Minnesota Vikings – William Beatty, LT, Connecticut
William Beatty may be the sleeper of the first round. With Bryant McKinnie possibly on his way out of Minnesota, William Beatty will be the insurance policy. He needs only one year in an NFL weight room and he should become one of the best pass blocking tackles in the league.
23. New England Patriots – Michael Johnson, OLB, Georgia Tech
Johnson has been plagued by consistency issues throughout his career, but the former Yellow Jackets defensive end has an absolute plethora of talent. His great size, power, and ability make him a player that really shouldn't get past New England. If the Pats do the job right, Johnson will go from being a 7-8 sack player to a 12-14 sack player.
24. Atlanta Falcons – Robert Ayers, DE, Tennessee
Ayers is not a player I'm particularly fond of, but he's been rocketing up the boards and I'm still having a hard time figuring out why. Ayers has bust written on his face. He failed to put up good production at Tennessee and his workout numbers were very below average at the combine. Still, Mike Mayock has pointed out that Ayers game film is excellent. Ayers plays the run well and does collapse the pocket, but finishing the job is very important in the NFL, as the sack takes away yards, downs, and momentum.
Do the Falcons want this to be the guy that replaces Jamaal Anderson? Good question. If anything, at least Ayers will collapse the pocket, even if he doesn't get after the quarterback.
25. Miami Dolphins – Chris “Beanie” Wells, RB, Ohio State
Rumor is that Ronnie Brown is on his way out of Miami for the right price. Brown has yet to regain his full pre-injury form. In the beginning of the 2007 season Brown looked like he may very well be one of the best running backs of the year, and then he tore his ACL. Wells has the ability to be one of the best backs in the league also, but nagging injuries have been an issue for him. He hits holes really hard, and Miami is likely going to be moving away from their gimmicky wildcat offense.
26. Baltimore Ravens – Darius Heyward-Bey, WR, Maryland
Heyward-Bey has the lightning speed that teams absolutely covet. He's got the ability to be one of Joe Flacco's best weapon going up for the deep ball. While I'm not Heyward-Bey's biggest fan, I think he could at least have a Bernard Berrian like career. Baltimore has some work to do. Flacco needs more weapons around him, and they have already really screwed up once this off-season by letting center Jason Brown walk to St. Louis.
27. Indianapolis Colts – Peria Jerry, DT, Ole Miss
This has probably been the safest bet of the whole draft for weeks now. Peria Jerry jumped into the first round with a good off-season and he fits the Colts scheme perfectly as an undertackle.
28. Buffalo Bills (from Carolina through Philadelphia) – Evander “Ziggy” Hood, DT, Missouri
There's no offensive tackle worth this selection to replace Jason Peters, but sticking Ziggy Hood next to Marcus Stroud will be a good thing. Unlike John McCargo, Hood actually can back his draft selection up with strong game film and off-season workouts.
29. New York Giants – Hakeem Nicks, WR, North Carolina
The Giants may land Braylon Edwards on draft day, but if not, the talented but inconsistent Hakeem Nicks will be the compilation prize.
30. Tennessee Titans – Vontae Davis, CB, Illinois
Despite his excellent athleticism Vontae Davis takes a surprising fall in the first round all the way to Tennessee who needs a replacement for Nick Harper whose age is going to become a concern. The Titans still need to find a replacement for Albert Haynesworth though. Good luck with that.
31. Arizona Cardinals – Knowshon Moreno, RB, Georgia
The Cardinals have emphasized all off-season the need to get faster at running back. Enter Knowshon Moreno.
32. Pittsburgh Steelers – Louis Delmas, FS, Western Michigan
Alex Mack or George Robinson are definite possibilities here with the porous pass blocking in Pittsburgh, but Louis Delmas falling to Pittsburgh would be too hard to pass up. Not only does he fill a need, but many teams would make a case that he's the best player available.
