Rumor: The Raiders to Hire Tom Cable as Head Coach

According to ESPN, though even they claimed that they do not have confirmation, Tom Cable is expected to be the next full-time head coach of the Raiders. I use the term full-time loosely, because Cable could start 0-4 and lose his job.

There are two sad truths in Oakland.

1. No one will ever expect them to have a break out season until they actually have a break out season.
2. Al Davis is still running the show.

Oakland is simply a lost franchise right now. There is no telling what direction JaMarcus Russell is going to go from here. Darren McFadden is being horribly underused. The Raiders have almost no threat at wide receiver (though Zach Miller is a good option at tight end). The offensive line can run block, but they can't protect a quarterback at all. On defense the Raiders can't stop the run and may be losing their best defensive player in free agency. How long is it going to take for Oakland to get back to prominence?

Will they ever? Cincinnati was able to get out of their rut this decade, albeit briefly. I'm sure Oakland will be able to have at least one successful season in the next five years. We just have to wonder what it's going to take, because I'm really not sure a coach who went 4-8 is worth the job.

Way too much snow to drive...Coaching Change Analysis!

So there's way too much snow for me to get out to class right now. Looks like I'm missing my 830 that I especially woke up for. Always love when that happens.

So let's break down the coaching changes! We'll break them down by hirings and firings!


Best Moves

1. Firing Herman Edwards, Ex-Kansas City Chiefs coach -- Honestly, I doubt Herman Edwards was going to get fired if it weren't for Scott Pioli. The new richest GM in the NFL knows that Edwards is a glorified assistant, whose only success has come using rosters built by Bill Parcells and Dick Vermeil. He's a terrible game-mananager, clock-manager, decision maker, talent evaluator (except for defensive backs!), and overall just a bad head coach. He brought the Jets to the playoffs three times on the heels of the Parcells drafts from 1997-2000, and allowed the roster to crumble and fall apart with little pruning. He knew he'd have a rebuilding job in Kansas City, and did a good job accumulating draft picks, and getting value at those picks, but as far as actual evaluation, Herm failed again. Branden Albert was stuck at left tackle, Glenn Dorsey was thrown into the fire immediately, and Tamba Hali has struggled to pick up the blind-side rushing position.

All-in-all Herm went 15-33 in Kansas City, and had no excuse for lasting as long as he did this off-season. Kansas City is likely to replace him with a rookie head coach like Todd Haley. I can't personally judge that move yet, but at this point anything has got to be better then Herm.

Grade: A-. Would have been an A+, but for whatever reason Clark Hunt actually had to deliberate about this one.


2. Firing Rod Marinelli, Ex-Detroit Lions Head Coach, Chicago Bears DL Coach/Assistant HC -- This came as a surprise to no one after Marinelli went 10-38 as head coach, including orchestrating the first ever 0-16 season in the sixteen game schedule. Marinelli tried to instill a sense of discipline in Detroit, but the talent just simply wasn't there. A recent report has said that Detroit values only three players on their team as untouchable--Calvin Johnson, Ernie Sims, and Cliff Avril. Avril was a personal favorite of mine and comes from a strong pedigree of Purdue pass rushers, but he may be a bit undersized. It should be interesting to see how things play out in Detroit, but Marinelli's ten wins in three seasons was more then enough to warrant a firing. Down the road though, Marinelli might not make a terrible cocah.

Grade: A-. There was no debate about this one. My only worry is that Marinelli may have unfairly taken the blame because of having just one of the most paltry and thin rosters in the league. Still, finishing with one win in your final twenty four games will merit a firing.


3. Hiring Rex Ryan -- The Jets may have made an enormous mistake in firing Mangini, and I may be skeptical in the motivation behind the Ryan hiring, but that doesn't mean he wasn't the best man for the job. Ryan has a distinct personality advantage over Mangini which goes over well with the New York fans and New York media. Far more importantly though, Ryan is known as a creative defensive schemer (a parrellel to Mike Leach) and the Jets lacked any creativity in their blitzes last season. Ryan's also got a knack for developing raw talent, so the Jets hopes for Vernon Gholston shouldn't be thrown out the window (hell they shouldn't have been anyway, but Gholston's got a better chance of success now). The Jets brought in a coach who likes to run a lot of base 3-4 defense, and that's what the team is built for right now. Finding some defensive line depth, a capable #2 CB, and a safety to play opposite Rhodes is priority this season in New York.

Grade: B+, I question the hiring's motivation, but he should fit well in New York, and he's started off by saying and doing all the right things.


4. Firing Mike Shanahan, ex-Denver Broncos Head Coach -- Believe it or not, I thought this was a terrific move. Shanahan's lack of success since Elway retired is well documented, and his stubborn demeanor and his arrogance have left him with an absurd thought in his mind that he could take transplants from just about any position and have success. Three years without playoff success said otherwise, and this season the Broncos allowed the first 4-8 team to come back and win a division (San Diego). The Broncos are an undisciplined team, who lack any diversity on the defensive line. Shanahan oversaw the collapse, and three years outside of the playoffs simply isn't good enough. Shanahan was 126-82 in regular season history with Denver, but his time had come.

Grade: B+, Firing a coach who is likely to be a first ballot Hall of Famer is always a risk, but the Pat Bowlen realized he needed to give the team a good sharp kick in the backside.


5. Hiring Mike Singletary -- A good coaching hire for the 49ers. Singletary went 5-4 in his nine games as an interim head coach. He says the right things and while his antics may be a little disheartening, he's going to take a hard line in instilling discipline in San Francisco. The main problem for Singletary is that coaches like him are either loved or hated--and like Bill Callahan, he could lose control of his team as quickly as he gains it.

Grade: B, A solid, respectable move for a guy who was long overdue.

6. Hiring Josh McDaniels -- Believe it or not I liked Denver's play to hire McDaniels despite his age and area of football focus. McDaniels' system from New England is a perfect fit for an already talented Broncos offense and can allow Cutler to scramble and buy time for his offense. The team is deep at receiver, and has an up and coming offensive line. They are going to need to add a running back with some ability at some point, but I like the McDaniel's hiring. I doubt he's going to ignore the defense. The move I didn't like was moving for Mike Nolan, who wants to move to a 3-4 defense that Denver is horribly ill-equipped to run--especially on the defensive lines.

Grade: B, It could pay off majorly to make this offense nearly unstoppable, but just how many times will Denver's defense change it's system?


7. Firing Jon Gruden, ex-Tampa Bay Buccaneers Head Coach -- Gruden just barely finished over .500 with the Buccaneers, failed to win a playoff game after his first season (a Super Bowl victory), and was the fall guy for the Buccaneers unprecedented collapse from 9-3 to 9-7 and out of the playoffs. Gruden went 57-55 with three NFC South titles, but only three playoff victories (all in 2002). The Buccaneers did little to add any offensive talent to help Gruden, but his schemes were not favored by the players, nor was his attitude and demeanor. Gruden earned his firing.

Grade: B, A Super Bowl coach always gets a grace period, but enough was enough.


8. Firing Romeo Crennel, ex Cleveland Browns Head Coach -- There's little need for analysis on this one. Crennel completely lost control of the team and went 24-40 in four seasons. He posted only one winning season and no playoff appearances. Cleveland had little discipline and the play calling was soft and predictable.

Grade: B, He was a big ol' softy.


Worst Moves

1. New York Jets firing Eric Mangini.
Current Cleveland Browns Head Coach -- The Browns picked up a steal here. Mangini unfairly took the brunt of the blame for the Jets 1-4 collapse. A collapse that was not aided by poor playcalling from offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer or a hip injury to stud NT Kris Jenkins, or the rumor that Mangini tried to install a new defensive scheme in the final four games of the season in panic after Denver turned the Jets defense into swiss cheese, but Brett Favre deserves the majority of the blame. Favre refused an MRI on his shoulder to keep his iron man streak alive. I think Favre knew exactly what was going to happen if he got the MRI--his streak was done. His struggles blew up in the face of the Jets as he threw nine interceptions, missed open receivers constantly, and looked as lost as Kellen Clemens did in 2007. Mangini had completely revamped the Jets roster and defense in just three seasons. Mangini should have gotten a one-year contract extension so that he wasn't a lame duck in 2009, and then the Jets could have determined the best way to go with Mangini. Consider his close relationship with GM Mike Tannenbaum, and it's all too obvious that owner Woody Johnson wanted to make this about Mangini, and not Favre.

Grade: F, Mangini made his fair share of mistakes, but to unfairly heap the blame on him simply to appease the fans is abhorrent.


2. Hiring Martin Mayhew -- The Detroit Lions found a way to justify hiring an in-house candidate to replace oft-antagonized GM Matt Millen. I just lied. There was no justification for it. They hired an in-house candidate on Millen's staff to replace a man who went 31-84. Instead of wiping the stink off completely, the smell will linger. Detroit isn't going to be given anything in the media or by fans until they prove that they aren't the most moribund franchise in the country.

Grade: F, seriously how do you justify this?


3. Hiring Jim Schwartz -- The Detroit Lions hired former Titans defensive coordinator of eight seasons Schwartz to orchestrate a rebuilding job. Generally you will find rookie head coaches are more inclined to take rebuilding jobs to try and prove themselves, but Schwartz has a lot of question marks about him. Often times a vanilla playcaller on defense whose greatest success came when Albert Haynesworth broke out. Whether he will keep the Lions disciplined in Training Camp is a total guess at this point, but at least we know he can develop some talent and has an eye for talent. Detroit could use that right now for rebuilding, but their are a lot of unanswered questions about Schwartz's defensive success.

Grade: D, Too many unanswered questions for me to like this acquisition. There's a small grain of hope for him, but it's small and I don't like his chances with GM Martin Mayhew.


4. Not Firing Marvin Lewis -- Seriously? How is it possible that the Cincinnati Bengals did not fire him? They've gotten worse every season since their lone playoff appearance. The team just appears content with constant mediocrity, and owner Mike Brown is far too frugal to fire Lewis and then pay-out the remainder of his contract.

Grade: D, A career of mediocrity, Lewis has posted three eight-win seasons, but only once has he gone over .500.


5. Not Firing Dick Jauron -- Wait, I said Cincinnati was content with mediocrity? I must have meant Buffalo. Jauron is still living off the 13-3 season he posted in 2001 with Jim Miller at quarterback. The Bills have gone 7-9 every season with Jauron, including a monumental breakdown this season where the Bills started 5-1 and managed to go 2-8 the rest of the season. Is there anything the Bills can do to finish with more then seven wins? For once?

Grade: D, I don't like firing coaches after three seasons, but Jauron's Bills have shown zero improvement in three seasons as coach, and he doesn't bring anything particularly impressive to the table besides his steady demeanor.



Notes on Other Moves:
- Steve Spagnuolo was probably the right man for the St. Louis job. His aggressive schemes should benefit Chris Long and Adam Carriker, but the Rams still have a lot of work to do on the defensive side of the ball. Spagnuolo has to attempt to rebuild a franchise that has been stuck in the mire, winning only five games in the last two seasons. We don't know much about Spagnuolo as a talent evaluator, and if he's just as bad as Linehan, then I don't expect much out of St. Louis.
- I'm not a big fan of Jim Mora Jr., but he's been surrounding himself with some decent coaches. Seattle still has talent. If they remain healthy and Arizona loses Kurt Warner next season could be a major rebound year for Seattle.
- Does anyone actually want the Raiders head coaching job? It has to be the least attractive job on the market--again.

Let's look at Oakland's coaching woes:

2008 -- Lane Kiffen (1-3), Tom Cable (4-8)
2007 -- Lane Kiffen (4-12)
2006 -- Art Shell (2-14)
2005 -- Norv Turner (4-12)
2004 -- Norv Turner (5-11)
2003 -- Bill Callahan (4-12)

Five different coaches. Callahan used Gruden's team and went 11-5 in 2002. Overall coaching records?

Bill Callahan (15-17)
Tom Cable (4-8)
Norv Turner (9-23)
Lane Kiffen (5-15)
Art Shell (2-14)

24 wins in six years since they lost in the Super Bowl. That's beyond awful. They have a senile, micromanaging owner who loves elite speed and gigantic arm strength. Rumors abound saying that Davis is bottling himself up and keeping everything to himself, because he trusts no one. Chances are the Raiders are going to hire Tom Cable, or they are going to go after a member of either Pittsburgh's or Arizona's staff. Russ Grimm and Todd Haley are two coaches that immediately come to mind, both from Arizona. Steelers offensive coordinator Bruce Arians is an option. Among those who have already interviewed it's between Tom Cable (interim head coach), Kevin Gilbride (Giants offensive coordinator), and Winston Moss (Packers positional coach). My money would be on Gilbride in an unimpressive list, but Cable is probably going to win the job after finishing the season on a two-game winning streak.

The Raiders situation looks ugly.

Mangini, Kolkonis, and the Cleveland Browns

Eric Mangini is a stubborn man. Perhaps because I've been watching HBO's John Adams miniseries too much I use this quote to be very appropriate.

"Well thanks be to God he gave me stubborness. Especially when I know that I am right."
- John Adams

Mangini, more often then not, is right. In most instances, he failed to allow media speculation or fan pressure dictate anything that he did. After the heavy criticism he and Brian Schottenheimer received for calling three straight running plays at the goal line (and failing to get in all three times) against the New England Patriots in Week 2's 19-10 loss, the Jets would often be inclined to pass a few times at the goal line. In another instance, according to rumours around Jets headquarters, Mangini completely revamped his defensive scheme after the 34-17 loss to Denver in Week 13. According to the report, the defense failed to pick up the new scheme, which aided in the Jets 1-4 collapse in the final five games of the season.

Yet, as I said, more often then not, Mangini was in the right as a head coach in New York. He took over as defensive playcaller midway through the doomed 2007 season, and in the final seven games of that season, the Jets went 3-4 (they started out 1-8) and their defense finished significantly better in every statistical category then they had in the nine games that he did not call the plays.

Mangini's talent evaluation is also heavily lauded. He had a close relationship with Jets General Manager Mike Tannenbaum, and the two worked tirelessly each off-season to revamp the broken roster that Herman Edwards allowed to fall apart from the Bill Parcells drafts. D'Brickashaw Ferguson and Nick Mangold have both established themselves as terrific picks from the 2006 1st round class. That class also proved beneficial in adding home-run threat Leon Washington and utility man Brad Smith. In a weak 2007 class, the Jets added stud cornerback Darrelle Revis and stout run defender David Harris. They also snagged a 7th round steal in WR Chansi Stuckey, who trailed off down the stretch, but has shown signs of being a very capable slot receiver in New York. In that same off-season, the Jets landed a diamond-in-the-rough in Kenyon Coleman through free agency, who has emerged into a fine 3-4 defensive end. Despite limited participation from the Jets 2008 draft class, Dustin Keller broke out nicely before hitting the rookie wall in the final four games of the 2008 season.

2008 will be much more remembered for Brett Favre, but the additions of Calvin Pace, Damien Woody, Alan Faneca, and Tony Richardson through free agency went extremely well, even though the style of spending went against much of Mangini's style in terms of building a roster. Pace contributed with seven sacks this season, and while that number may seem average, he was the only Jets defender to put consistent pressure on opposing quarterbacks, and was by far their best (and only) cover linebacker. Faneca and Woody added veteran leadership to the offensive line as well as great run blocking. Once the line gelled, the Jets emerged with the AFC Rushing Champion--30 year old Thomas Jones. Woody was particularly underrated, as the Jets spent almost the entire season in the Top 5 in yards per rush off right tackle.

Mangini helped revamp the New York Jets, and instilled discipline and character in his players. Cleveland is not necessarily the best fit for Mangini, but like he did with the Jets, he must instill that same sense of discipline and character in Cleveland.

He inherits a talented offense with playmakers Kellen Winslow II and Braylon Edwards in contract years, an aging running back, and a woebegone quarterback situation. Still, Cleveland has one of the strongest offensive lines in the NFL when healthy, and Mangini need only prune the Cleveland offensive trenches and find a suitable replacement for the aging Jamal Lewis, which as we've seen can be done without taking a running back in the first round.

Where Cleveland is really in trouble, is on the defensive side of the football. Mangini, like his predecessor Romeo Crennel favors a 2-gap 3-4 system. The 2-gap system can be dominant against the run, but is easily the most team oriented defense in the league. Corey Williams failed to adapt to his position as a 3-4 defensive end, though he is not talentless, and with the right coaching, could potentially develop and save Browns fans, and Mangini, a world of aggrivation. Shaun Rogers, while seemingly better suited as a 1-gapping 3-4 nose tackle, is tied to his position under Mangini thanks to a 6-year 42 million dollar contract. It is not out of the question though, that Rogers could potentially move to defensive end (though I don't anticipate this) in this 3-4. In this scenario, I would imagine that Mangini would take a hard look at bringing in Boston College NT Ron Brace, who is the best NT in this year's class, and probably the best since Gabe Watson in 2006.

Cleveland's problems on defense are still looming large. They lack a pass rusher opposite Kamerion Wimbley, who has struggled with a defensive line that failed to pick up the 3-4 scheme and a limited amount of pass rushing moves. Wimbley needs to refine his game, but will benefit from the addition of another pass rusher. In this case, the Browns best hope is probably in Brian Orapko (Texas), Michael Johnson (Georgia Tech), or Everette Brown (Florida State). As far as linebackers go, Wimbley and D'Qwell Jackson (a gem indeed) will likely be the only returning starters for Cleveland.

Cleveland's secondary is the least of it's worries right now surprisingly, which makes me believe they'll pass on cornerback Malcolm Jenkins, despite the fact that he's a home-grown product from Ohio State and compares favorably to 49ers cornerback Nate Clements. Eric Wright struggled at the end of last season, but has shown flashes of being a very good cornerback, and will probably succeed with a more efficient pass rush. Brandon McDonald, benched at one point, really finished the season strong, his best outing coming against Indianapolis' Reggie Wayne. Sean Jones is a free agent, but his battle with assorted injuries this season should keep his price down. Brodney Pool up for a few more seasons as well. As far as the Browns secondary go, they'd probably be better off trying to add a veteran this off-season such as Jabari Greer or Bryant McFadden. They have more then enough youth in the secondary.

Where Mangini works for this team is that he'll add a disciplined demeanor to the squad. He may not be firey and agitated, but Mangini doesn't mess around in training camp. These players will be in shape and ready, and that will mean the world for NT Shaun Rogers. Even if he can't pick up the scheme this year, he'll be in shape or Mangini will be on him no question.

The relationship with Kolkonis is key here. Kolkonis comes from a philosophy of building through the draft, which is heavily aligned with Mangini's. Early indications in Cleveland indicate that Mangini has quite a bit of power. I would expect the Browns will leave free agency alone this season except for maybe one of the under-the-radar players. I think that Eric Barton could easily be one of them to play inside next to D'Qwell Jackson.

The diagnosis on the Browns is not good, but it's not the end of the world. With a host of offensive talent, the Browns simply have to find a way to stay healthy up front and start negotiating on a deal to hang onto either Kellen Winslow II or Braylon Edwards. Edwards is more then likely going to be the one who is shipped out despite Cleveland's lack of depth at receiver. K2 is far more of a fan favorite after Edwards' sixteen drops and badmouthing of the Cleveland fans. With Mangini at the helm, I won't be surprised if Cleveland winds up with a winning record next year, or in the playoffs no less. A lot of it hinges on Brady Quinn, but the first step to success, is a good offensive line--so Cleveland fans can breathe a little easier.


Notes:

- While Eric Mangini is a fan of open competition, and will likely declare every spot in training camp as open, chances are that Derek Anderson will either have to re-do his contract or he'll be cut. The contract itself was more of a 1-year tryout for Anderson, and GM Phil Savage gets unfairly attacked for this deal. It predicted Cleveland being exactly in the situation they're in now--summing up whether Anderson is worth a 5 million dollars roster bonus. The Browns only have about 7 million in cap room right now, so this could be a sticking point. I don't expect Anderson back next season, nor do I expect any takers via trade.
- Mangini is said to have micro-managed the offensive side of the ball in New York. I'd be very surprised though if the Browns don't run a run-heavy offense though. The Jets felt the need to tailor their offense to Favre last year, but Mangini is Favre-free and chances are he's going to go back to the power run.
- With only four picks in this draft, I'm expecting the Browns to try and trade down. I don't anticipate their being any takers unless Matthew Stafford falls to 5th overall. Right now I'm projecting Everette Brown, but Michael Johnson is likely to have a great combine and could wind up at 5th overall. Johnson was inconsistent this season, but still posted nine sacks and is probably the most athletic defensive end in the draft. Still, the Browns may be favoring a more polished pass rusher with enough moves to take the heat off of Wimbley.
- One of Mangini's biggest weaknesses is often confused. By nature, he's an aggressive, blitzing type (until he gets a nice lead, and gets into a much more passive prevent shell). However, where his schemes have failed in the past fall on both him, his coaches, and his players. His blitzes have often looked (especially in the last five games of 2008) obvious, lacking major creativity. More often then not, Mangini tries to overcompensate the lack of creativity with quantity. In 2007, the Jets led the league in both 6-man rushes and 3-man rushes. Watch out for this potential flaw.
- One thing I am expecting is for the Browns to find a new 3-4 DE. I'm expecting either Igor Olshanksy (San Diego), Antonio Smith (Arizona), or Chris Canty to be one of the starting ends in Cleveland next year. As I said earlier, also don't be surprised if former Jets ILB Eric Barton is starting next to D'Qwell Jackson in September.
- I see a lot of potential in Cleveland, and this year nonwithstanding, most coaches have more success with their 2nd team then their first.

2009 Player Profiles: Mike Teel

Try and think of Matthew Stafford's profile as a test run. My goal is to break down players who I've been able to see more then those that I have not seen.

Mike Teel, QB, Rutgers (#2 Senior QB, #5 overall QB)
Career Stats: 661/1142 (57.9%), 9398 yards, 59 touchdowns, 49 interceptions

Analysis: Don't let the interception count fool you, Teel became a much better ball handler later in his career, throwing 45 touchdown passes and 26 interceptions in his junior and senior years. His first two years as a starter he threw an interception every 17 attempts--an appalling number. During his junior and senior years, he threw an interception every 28.7 attempts, which is far more respectable.

He accumulated a 29-13 record starting for Rutgers for three full seasons and several games his freshman year for the injured Ryan Hart. While the Scarlet Knights had a stable running game for much of Teel's career, they severely lacked it in his senior season with the departure of Ray Rice. The pressure fell onto Teel's shoulders, and he didn't respond well as Rutgers started out 1-5. Teel threw just three touchdown passes and seven interceptions, and struggled to get Rutgers in the end zone (17.5 PPG).

But Rutgers reeled off seven straight victories including a bowl win for the up and coming program, with Teel at the helm--throwing 22 touchdown passes and 6 interceptions in an eight game stretch where the Scarlet Knights averaged 38.9 points per game.

Teel's numbers are impressive enough from a Pro-Style offense that lacked any punch in the running game, but numbers aren't enough. Their are both pros and cons to Mike Teel, making him a developmental project, but one that could actually play well in the NFL.

At 6-foot-4, 220 pounds Teel has ideal quarterback size. He has a lively, though not exceptional, arm, and solid form and mechanics. His footwork is, at times, uneven and caused problems early in the season for Rutgers, as Teel's accuracy was constantly in flux. He's not exactly a statue in the pocket, but he's also not going to take off, and will rarely buy time for a broken play with his feet.

Teel excels at finding passing lanes thanks to his height, is able to withstand punishment because of his frame, and has a very keen ability to put touch on any ball he throws. His pocket presence is inconsistent. At times he shows a great feel for the pass rush, and other times looks totally oblvious too it. Predominantly, when he is playing well, Rutgers wins. When he isn't, Rutgers loses, and it was all too clear this season.

We can't forget though, that Teel is not going to be picked any earlier then the 3rd round, and with good reason. First and foremost, Teel has yet to put a full consistent season together. In 2007 he faded down the stretch, playing through a broken thumb on his throwing hand (right). He also struggled in the first half of the 2006 season as well as the first half of the 2008 season. His inconsistency was often irritating for Rutgers fans, and nearly led to his benching during the 12-10 victory over Connecticut this season. You must also ask if Teel benefitted from the supreme receiving talent (at least at the college level) of Tiquan Underwood, Kenny Britt (most definitely at the pro level), and newcomer Tim Brown.

There are question marks about Teel, but he compares favorably to former 1st overall pick Drew Bledsoe. Bledsoe's no hall of famer, but he threw for almost 45,000 yards and 250 touchdowns in a fourteen year career. Bledsoe made four Pro Bowls as well. Whether or not Teel puts up those kind of accolades will depend on a team's patience, but he can be a solid professional quarterback at the next level.

2009 Positional Rankings: Quarterback

QB
1. Matthew Stafford*, Georgia (Top 5)
2. Mark Sanchez*, Southern California (1st Round)
3. Rhett Bomar, Sam Houston State (2nd-3rd Round)
4. Josh Freeman*, Kansas State (2nd-3rd Round)
5. Mike Teel, Rutgers (3rd Round)
6. Nate Davis*, Ball State (3rd Round)
7. Willie Tuitama, Arizona (4th Round)
8. Tom Brandstater, Fresno State (4th Round)
9. Stephen McGee, Texas A&M (4th Round)
10. Chase Holbrook, New Mexico State (5th Round)
11. Graham Harrell, Texas Tech (6th Round)
12. Drew Willy, Buffalo (6th-7th Round)
13. Chase Daniel, Missouri (7th Round)
14. Joe Ganz, Nebraska (7th Round)
15. Nathan Brown, Central Arkansas (7th Round)
16. John Parker Wilson, Alabama
17. Todd Boeckman, Ohio State
18. Pat White, West Virginia
19. Curtis Painter, Purdue
20. Rudy Carpenter, Arizona State
21. Bobby Reid, Texas Southern
22. Hunter Cantwell, Louisville
23. Nate Longshore, California
24. Brian Johnson, Utah
25. Cullen Harper, Clemson
26. Jonathan Daily, Cal-Poly

Notes:

- Mark Sanchez has terrific mechanics, but his lack of experience is extremely alarming. He needs to be caged like Aaron Rodgers for a good few seasons.
- Mike Teel's name has been flying under the radar, but he's probably the 2nd best senior quarterback in a very weak year for upper classmen. Teel's got terrific accuracy on his deep ball, a lively arm, and already knows how to put touch on his throws. Don't be surprised if Teel sneaks his way into the 3rd round.
- Graham Harrell's slow decision-making and gimmick offense will continue to hold him back in the eyes of NFL Scouts.
- It doesn't matter how Pat White does in the Senior Bowl practices or the game, and even after good performances, it still doesn't matter. It doesn't change his stature and weight. At 6-foot-0, 190 pounds he was a constant injury liability in Morgantown, and will be even more so at the pro level if he's a quarterback.
- Hunter Cantwell has allowed an immense amount of talent to be hampered by one of the worst throwing motions and slowest releases of any senior quarterback this season. Don't expect his name to be called on draft day, because right now he's in the process of changing his motion, and that never bodes well for anyone at this point in their career.

2009 Player Profiles: Matthew Stafford

I'll be doing plenty of player profiles as the draft season rolls on. Here's the first one.

* Denotes underclassmen

1. Matthew Stafford*, Georgia
Career Stats: 564/987 (57.1%), 7731 yards, 51 touchdowns, 33 interceptions

Stafford has started 34 games in his career, and appeared in 39 total, as he led Georgia to a 27-7 record as a starter. He's gifted with great size (6-foot-3-inches, 237 pounds) and a powerful arm. His mechanics and footwork have steadily improved each year, noticably improving his accuracy and release. Stafford's primary struggles have been inconsistency and far too much faith in his arm. While he has the arm to squeeze the ball into tight windows, he lacks the overall accuracy to do it, which has led to an interception every 29-30 attempts Stafford makes. If Stafford is asked to start right away, he could throw 20 interceptions at the Pro level as a rookie--especially if it's with Detroit.

Like many top prospects, Stafford is high-risk, high-reward. A flop could potentially set back a struggling franchise further, while success would give a franchise a long-term solution at quarterback. If one of the top teams in contention for Stafford (Detroit, St. Louis, or Kansas City) expects him to start right away, they'll need to take a lesson from the Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons, before drafting Matt Ryan, added a power runner to compliment speedster Jerious Norwood, added vastly underrated free safety Erik Coleman, and drafted blind-side protector Sam Baker. Baker missed quite a bit of the season with injuries, but the Falcons were still able to run the ball and take pressure off of Matt Ryan.

The success for any rookie quarterback is to be put in an offense that emphasizes minimizing mistakes and simply taking care of the ball while the running game does the work. Detroit just hired pass-happy coordinator Scott Linehan, so I'm not sure that's the best recipe for Stafford's success, but all the same, he will likely wind up there anyway.

The Jets, Rex Ryan, and Edmund Burke

When Rex Ryan emerged as the heavy favorite for the New York Jets head coaching job last week I breathed a sigh of relief. I figured the Jets had found the right man to replace Eric Mangini. After all, the Jets needs on defense had far more to do with coaching then it did with personnel, and many were clamoring for Defensive Coordinator Bob Sutton’s firing since the end of 2006. But something bothered me about Ryan. It wasn’t the fact that he’d been passed over for so many years despite his long list of accolades. Nor was it that Ryan had been blessed by coaching a defense with extraordinary talent and a pre-Ryan system that beautified that talent. And I was not upset by the fact that he was a rookie head coach, because despite the long list of 2nd-team coaches who have gone on to win Super Bowl, this year’s Super Bowl has two coaches who are both in their first stint as head coaches. What concerns me about Ryan are the conflicting reports about his style. Is he, or is he not, a player’s coach? I read one writer describe him as a “no-nonsense coach” and I immediately felt relieved. The Jets needed a coach like Mangini who was disciplined, strict, and brilliant, but perhaps a more natural leader, because Eric Mangini never showed much of natural leadership.

Yet I hear disturbing reports about Rex Ryan. Some have called him a player’s coach, and the fact is, player’s coaches almost never succeed at the pro level, and if they do, they’ve usually inherited some pretty breathtaking talent (see Barry Switzer and Wade Phillips—ironically both with Dallas). Ryan has inherited a very talented team in New York, built by Mike Tannenbaum and Eric Mangini. It’s an offense that simply needs a caretaker at quarterback, and a defense that hinges on elite status if Vernon Gholston becomes the player that so many believe he can be. Keyshawn Johnson reminded everybody when Jon Gruden was fired that the right coach can inherit a good roster and rev the engine for success—Gruden was able to do that.

Next, there were the great many complaints I heard about Ryan’s inability to make adjustments to a game plan, or even worse, his propensity for settling into a 3-man rush when he’s working with a lead. These complaints had been thrown against Eric Mangini and Bob Sutton repeatedly, and it certainly would not be beneficial for the Jets to hire another head coach if he was going to have the same weaknesses as the old. For all the respect I have for Eric Mangini, and my belief in his great abilities as an X’s and O’s coach, a motivator (see the 4-12 season, those players got up for every game even when they meant nothing), and disciplinarian, he had weaknesses just like any other coach. He was far too conservative on defense when the team had a lead, and it was no better put on display then when the Jets nearly lost to the New England Patriots after taking an early 24-6 lead this past November.

But it was more than just the conflicting reports or the bothering criticisms that worried me. It was the fact that he seemed to be almost far-and-away the favorite candidate amongst Jets fans. He wasn’t alone either. At first, every Jets fan was on the Bill Cowher bandwagon, and the Jets went after Cowher. He turned the Jets down to stay with CBS. Jets fans switched to Rex Ryan and New York Giants defensive coordinator (and eventual Rams head coach) Steve Spagnuolo, and low and behold, these two became the favorites to win the Jets head coaching job. Normally I would just tell myself it was one of those rare times when management and fans were thinking alike, and even stranger were right—and this still could be true.

Ryan and Spagnuolo each had a lot of things to offer to excite Jets fans. Ryan’s father had been an assistant on the Jets Super Bowl team in 1968-69. Ryan had grown up a Jets fan, had the pedigree of a great coach, aggression on the football field, and fire off of it. He was very much the opposite of his stoic predecessor, and his brother’s name had often been thrown around as a potential defensive coordinator when Mangini was the head coach. For many, Ryan was an attractive candidate. Spagnuolo wasn’t quite as popular, but many envisioned what could be a great Jets defense with a very deep defensive line under Spagnuolo, and perhaps he’d be able to mimic his success with the Jets that he'd had with the stadium sharing Giants. Mixed with sensational memories of Spagnuolo’s game plan that put Tom Brady on his backside a plethora of times in last season’s Giants Super Bowl victory over the heavily favored Patriots his youth, and his aggression, Jets fans had a soft spot for Spanguolo. After all, wasn’t beating the Patriots every Jets fans dream right now? Spagnuolo was young, relatable, and aggressive. He had stopped the unstoppable 2007 Patriots offense. He was another popular candidate. Ryan eventually edged him out, many believed, because the Jets were built as a 3-4 team by Mangini, and were not ready to go to the 4-3.

These reasons would have been good enough to sell me on either Ryan or Spagnuolo. Yet, I recalled several disconcerting trends since March 2008. Fans were screaming for more talent, and the Jets went out and spent 140 million dollars on marquis free agents, going very much against what Mangini and Tannenbaum had been doing to that point. Brett Favre became available, because it was clear that Favre and Green Bay would not be able to both get what they want. The fans were in love with the idea of bringing in Brett Favre when he became available this July, and in early August, after fans demonstrated their zeal for Favre, he was wearing a New York Jets uniform. Jets fans and former players were irate with the collapse of the 2008 team. Many of these Jets constituents placed heaping amounts of blame on ex-coach Eric Mangini. Owner Woody Johnson hastened to name Eric Mangini as the orchestrator of the team’s total and incomprehensible late season swoon. On December 29th, 2008, one day after the season ended, and one day after Woody Johnson said that it was a decision he wouldn’t make quickly, Eric Mangini was fired after two winning seasons in three years, the blame being placed squarely on his shoulders, where the majority of fans wanted it.

Do you see a pattern?

With the new stadium opening up in 2010, Woody Johnson is hastening to sell unpopular PSL’s (Personal Seat Licenses) and keep his constituents happy. After all, Johnson would be in some trouble if people stopped attending the performances put on by his favorite toy. Right now he needs to keep the fans appeased. Keeping the fans appeased, and keeping their voices involved in the coaching search, was alarmingly significant. Now the Jets have hired Rex Ryan, and nobody knows if he’s truly a player’s coach or not, but fans seem to be in love with his opening statements about the team. But I am afraid of another collapse. Maybe, like so many before me, I’m becoming a paranoid Jets fan, convinced in our own eternal cycle of failure. Or maybe, something more sinister is at work here, and Rex Ryan wasn’t hired in due diligence, but because Woody Johnson can’t afford to lose fan support right now. Or maybe, for once, what the fans want, and what’s right, is truly the same.

Then I remember the words of British politician and philosopher Edmund Burke. “Your representative owes you, not his industry only, but his judgment; and he betrays, instead of serving you, if he sacrifices it to your opinion.”

Maybe it’s just one wild coincidence with little conspiracy. Certainly, I feel that Rex Ryan can do very well with the roster he’s inheriting. And no part of me will be able to root against the Jets. Nor do I have any qualms about being wrong here. But the Jets are walking a very tight rope here, and if I am right, then there is no doubt in my mind that Woody Johnson and Mike Tannenbaum have betrayed their better judgment for the will of the people—the fans.